Sunday, July 26, 2020

Debunking common denialist arguments against Psi and Parapsychology

Since I've been in a fair few debates with ESP deniers over the last year or so, I thought it might make for a good post to compile some of the most common arguments they tend to make against Psi and how I would refute them.

Myth: "There has never been any scientific evidence for ESP/Psi."

Fact: More than 140 years of independently replicated experimental evidence under strictly controlled conditions within Parapsychology have given us a clear answer to whether or not Psi exists and this answer is unambigiously in the affirmative. The invention of meta-analysis means that over the course of massive numbers of replication attempts, many of the most well known Psi experiments have achieved a level of statistical significance above six sigma (odds against chance of a million to one) and in some cases seven sigma (odds against chance of a trillion to one). Etzel Cardeña, Parapsychologist and Thorsen Professor of Psychology at Lund University in Sweden, published a 2018 meta-analysis in the APA journal  concerning the experimental evidence for psi that looked at over 1000 experiments and contained commentary from various Parapsychologists and Physicists. Cardeña concluded that the experimental evidence for Psi was as strong as any other phenomena accepted in Psychology. In response, two skeptics, Alcock and Reber, wrote a rebuttal paper which they openly admitted that they refused to look at any of the experimental evidence because it contradicted their established beliefs.

You can also read many of the relevant papers here:

http://www.deanradin.com/evidence/evidence.htm

Myth: "Meta-analysis is unreliable because of the file drawer effect which means that negative results can go unpublished in order to attain a result that looks significant but really isn't."

Fact: This argument has been addressed by Parapsychologists many times but that hasn't stopped skeptics from continuing to repeat it. Whilst meta-analysis does come with the risk that negative results can sometimes be shelved, we know this isn't a serious problem in Parapsychology because all of the major experiments have simply had too many published trials run for it to be possible for researchers to have run enough trials with unpublished negative results within the relevant timeframe that could conceivably drop the overall result to chance levels. Furthermore, Susan Blackmore who is a hardcore skeptic investigated the possibility that a file drawer effect could nullify the positive result of the Ganzfeld Telepathy experiments and concluded that the shelved replication attempts would have only added to the statistical significance. Lastly, funnel plot graphs allow Parapsychologists to estimate how many replication attempts have likely been shelved and assess their effect on statistical significance from there. Suffice to say, this is another argument thrown around by skeptics that doesn't have much, if any, merit.

Myth: "There is no mechanism that would allow for Psi."

Fact: There are mutiple interpretations of Quantum Mechanics that would allow for and in some cases even imply the existence of Psi. You can read about some of them here. Skeptics are very fond of claiming that Psi would violate the "laws of physics" usually without specifying what law would be broken, using an outdated Classical understanding of physics and/or failing to explain why it would be a problem if Psi did violate our understanding of the laws of physics when new experimental evidence has lead to this changing again and again anyway.

Myth: "James Randi offered a million dollar challenge for anyone who could prove they had psychic abilities and no one was ever able to win this."

Fact: There is a fair amount I could easily say about this but I'm going to keep it fairly brief. I'll start by pointing out that even if there weren't a million problems with both the JRE Challenge and the person adminstering it, the simple truth of the matter is that Randi isn't a scientist and scientific proof doesn't proceed off prizes, it proceeds off independent replication under scientific conditions - neither of which can be found within the JRE Challenge. Not only does Randi have a huge grudge against the paranormal but there are terminal problems with the requirements of the Challenge in relation to Parapsychological experiments, one being that it requires them to achieve absolutely mammoth effect sizes that would never be seen as justifiable in mainstream science. 

On a more personal note, I know of someone who worked for Randi and who was a hardcore skeptic before they started having psychic experiences themselves. They confirmed to me that that the Challenge is Randi's business model and can never be passed a result. In effect, the Challenge serves as a PR stunt and there is a considerable amount of research to suggest that organized skepticism in regards to Psi has functioned more as a PR campaign than a science based approach from the beginning.

Myth: "People who believe in the paranormal are just gulible and suffer from a lack of critical thinking skills."

Fact: The avaliable research on this subject suggests that there is no difference in the critical thinking abilities of skeptics and believers.

Myth: "If Psi were real then it would be accepted by academia."

Fact: Aside from the fact that surveys have shown that most academics don't think things like Telepathy and Precognition are impossible at all, even Ray Hyman and Chris French (two of the most prolific skeptics) have conceded that most psychologists have no idea about the existence of the  experimental evidence for Psi, hence this cannot be taken as a meaningful scientific rejection of something,

Academia denied the experimental evidence that bats used ultrasound to travel for over 120 years so it really shouldn't be difficult to see how it could be so resistant to something like Psi which challenges certain assumptions that have been regarded by Western Academics as Sacred Cows for several centuries.

Myth: "Richard Wiseman refuted the evidence for Psi and showed it to be baseless."

Fact: Wiseman's criticisms of Parapsychology and the Ganzfeld Telepathy experiments in particular have been soundly refuted.

Wiseman has also conceded that Psi has met the standard for scientific proof.

I think I'll publish this with the list as it is for now and perhaps add more examples over time. Suffice to say, the "skeptics" case against Psi and Parapsychology is almost entirely meritless.

No comments:

Post a Comment